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Coronavirus

Coronavirus - The Poll

  • Total voters
    97
bluesonichd said:
:nomouth:

But I’m not everyone

Everyone except me need to stay inside. And self quarantine :triumph:
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You need one of these
(Child not included)
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Sent from my SM-J600FN using Tapatalk
 
My local supermarket has run out of skimmed milk (but has way too much semi) and free range eggs (but has way too many caged hen eggs)
 
GaryH said:
It is lower, but so are the tests, they seem to be going more one day then less the next, then more, then less... Not sure what's going on!

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Weekend effect, people don’t report to hospital on Saturdays and sundays with mild illnesses, things pick up on Monday when people don’t want to go to work or have finished the interesting social reason for putting off seeing the doctor.

Testing numbers will go up again as the week progresses.

GaryH said:
Yeah I don't understand it either. We have an opportunity to stop it but they choose not to. However can we stop it? I'm not sure while flights keep coming in.

What I have wondered is of they are trying to get the younger population infected to develop a herd immunity while the elderly stay in and can access healthcare should they need to. If enough people get it and develop antibodies (as has been proven they do today) then the virus will struggle to find people to infect as time progresses.

Edit : 5th person just died. 70 year old with health conditions. Not doing too well so far are we!
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Doing about as expected, all deaths have been in the predicted age/ health history groups and percentages seem to be meeting global trends. The young you predicted would be falling down dead don’t seem to be.

I doubt the plan currently is to gain herd immunity in the young population as we are not convinced immunity occurs after infection yet. I suspect they just don’t think the death rate associated with the virus is bad enough to take the hit on the economy. Italy only seem to have shut down because the health system was breaking down so they went to extreme measures, that is obviously a risk in the uk but if the peak of the outbreak can be pushed back into April they reckon the winter illness season for flu and norovirus will be over and those wand the system will be better placed to cope by shutting down elective care into the spring.

GaryH said:
Were actually had hand sanitizer in our local Tesco today!
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Soap works as well if not better than hand sanitiser.
 
Paper shows antibodies are produced from around day 6 , however in some people the response isn't strong enough and virus RNA remains which is why people may be taking positive again.

A vaccine will need to produce a considerably large antibody response to be effective against this on everyone. Plus side is that it should offer some immunity for a few months after recovering from this.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.02.20030189v1
 
GaryH said:
Paper shows antibodies are produced from around day 6 , however in some people the response isn't strong enough and virus RNA remains which is why people may be taking positive again.

A vaccine will need to produce a considerably large antibody response to be effective against this on everyone. Plus side is that it should offer some immunity for a few months after recovering from this.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.02.20030189v1
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It’s not so much whether antibodies are produced as we produce antibodies all the time for all sorts of diseases. It’s whether we retain a good immune memory or whether the virus likes to mutate regularly making immune memory redundant (like the cold and flu virus’s).

Over time the population will gain some level of partial immunity which will likely reduce the severity of the illness rather than the infection rate, but that could take years.

I suspect we are going to see at risk groups asked to isolate this week.
 
On thing I haven't seen mentioned about Italy and why it spread so quick is possibly because they are just so dam friendly over there, my old neighbour is Italian and is completely nuts, everytime I see them I get a big hug and a kiss, then I leave the room and go back five minutes and you get the same thing - it's no wonder it spread so much, they just can't keep their hands off each other lol.

Of course, another reason it spread so quick is becuase they can't stop people entering the country, yeah the airlines have stopped flying, but I bet if you drove up to the border, nobody would stop you entering, even now, they're not allowed to prevent entry from another EU nation, oh dear, that open border policy ain't gonna be looking so roses now is it?
 
Can’t help but think Italy are leading the way on prevention.

Country now on lockdown, mortgage payments suspended etc.

We are / were following what Italy had done so far (minus lockdown) and as they said on the news this morning it’s not a matter of if, it’s when. And that thousands will catch it.

Assuming the government is ready to act I find it hard to believe next week will be a normal week. places closed and restrictions on gatherings.

Not scaremongering at all but there does come a point where lockdown needs to happen

Edit: and just as I posted lenders in the UK are starting to allow mortgages to be deferred for 3 months.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ortgage-relief-customers-hit-coronavirus.html

The Royal Bank of Scotland has today pledged to defer mortgage and loan repayments for up to three months for customers impacted by coronavirus.

RBS said it would also waive early closure charges on fixed savings accounts and offer refunds on credit card cash advance fees so affected customers can access cash without penalty.

The bank said customers could apply for increased temporary credit card limits and request an increased cash withdrawal limit of up to 500 pounds to help them manage disruption.

This comes after Italy - which is now on lockdown - said mortgage payments would be suspended.
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IanSR said:
On thing I haven't seen mentioned about Italy and why it spread so quick is possibly because they are just so dam friendly over there, my old neighbour is Italian and is completely nuts, everytime I see them I get a big hug and a kiss, then I leave the room and go back five minutes and you get the same thing - it's no wonder it spread so much, they just can't keep their hands off each other lol.

Of course, another reason it spread so quick is becuase they can't stop people entering the country, yeah the airlines have stopped flying, but I bet if you drove up to the border, nobody would stop you entering, even now, they're not allowed to prevent entry from another EU nation, oh dear, that open border policy ain't gonna be looking so roses now is it?
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Italy is a well established entry point for a lot of tourist doing their grand European tours. Suspect the virus was entering before anyone was really aware that there was a virus spreading.
 
Can't see it happening here at the same extent. And Italians aren't really on lockdown are they because they're still allowed to go to work and people aren't being checked at the borders either. How is that lockdown? You either fully enforce it or you don't.

I do think people in the highest risk category (elderly and sick) should be staying at home as much as possible though.
 
Dave said:
Italy is a well established entry point for a lot of tourist doing their grand European tours. Suspect the virus was entering before anyone was really aware that there was a virus spreading.
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Oh sure and then spread round like wildfire because it's considered extremely rude not to kiss someone and give them a big hug when you meet over there.

Over here we don't generally give friends a big kiss everytime we meet them. half the time I'm lucky if my friends even say hello as most of them usually have headsets on flying round the gym and you're more likely to get a wing rock to say hello than actually spoken too (since most are concentrating so hard not to crash into the track objects, that just saying hello can result in a crash and huge amounts of ridicule).
 
Figures out today - 373 now, an increase of 52. However, testing is down yet again , just 1301 tests done yesterday. I dont understand why testing is now available to everyone given that there is now considerable community spread taking place. I would say we are probably 3 or 4 times higher than the official case figure.

Current 111 guidance for testing is that you have been to one of the affected countries, have symptoms, or have been in contact with a known confirmed case. So what about the community contact patients? This oversight is potentially putting a lot of people at risk.

Meanwhile in Italy, a doctor has sent out a letter which mentions that anyone over 65 or under 65 with existing comorbidities are not even being assessed anymore. When they arrest no one is even there, they dont have the staff and 535 healthcare workers are now infected.
 
GaryH said:
Figures out today - 373 now, an increase of 52. However, testing is down yet again , just 1301 tests done yesterday. I dont understand why testing is now available to everyone given that there is now considerable community spread taking place. I would say we are probably 3 or 4 times higher than the official case figure.

oversight is potentially putting a lot of people at risk.
.
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What the government need to do is sack all the doctors and scientists advising them on what to do and employ GaryH........

It was clear the virus was going to spread weeks ago, the extent and severity changes on a daily basis but no one was pretending we could contain it. There is no real interest in whether it does spread in the community because they knew it was already.

You don’t test for the sake of testing, if it isn’t going to have any benefit then what’s the point? The tests don’t miraculously happen by themselves, it takes resource and you therefore don’t need tests that are not going to change a treatment plan as that delays the test results you actually need completing. You test the patients who have bad symptoms as you need to know whether to isolate them from the rest of a hospital population.

There is also the fact we are heading out of winter so there will be lower incidence of bad colds and flu that have the same symptoms of COVID requiring testing.

That said testing rates will likely increase.
 
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