Coronavirus

[GaryH]

They are full and over stretched yes, but not to the extent they will be from this virus. Italy are running at 200% capacity at the moment. Most NHS trusts are running 93-97%

The virus affects all age groups, with Italy seeing an increase in younger patients coming into ICU. The difference is that the young when put on oxygen tend to recover, the older dont, and not all the elderly voted for Brexit.

 

[Dave]

Isn't every year during the winter season our hospitals always end up full to capacity and over stretchered because of seasonal Flu?

This government has run our NHS down. And lack of beds don't necessarily mean bed literally, it also means the lack of qualified nursing staff to monitor these beds. Haven't we lost qualified Nursing staff coming from abroad due to Brexit?

The irony is that this virus is going to affect mainly the age group that voted Brexit but yet can't get the treatment due to lack of Nurses

The main difference is Flu has population immunity and even if you get a strain you are not immune to because you have some inherent immunity your symptoms are lessened and you recover quicker. The other difference is corona seems to like to spread deeper into the lungs (hence why the test isn’t always that accurate as you need deep respiratory fluid to have come up to the throat).

I think people are overestimating the impact more testing will achieve other than help better calculate the CFR. A test only has use if it changes behaviour, it may reduce isolation times and reduce the economic impact but it won’t likely reduce transmission or severity.

 

[GaryH]

The benefit of more testing is clear to see when you look at S Korea. Anyone can get a test done, quickly, easily, stay isolated, get their results back within a few hours and know whether to stay indoors, and not spread it to others, or to go and get medical assistance.

Surely the more people are able to identify as carriers quickly means less spread and that can only be a good thing. Well, it is a good thing, numbers are starting to fall over there now.

 

[Benjsh]

The benefit of more testing is clear to see when you look at S Korea. Anyone can get a test done, quickly, easily, stay isolated, get their results back within a few hours and know whether to stay indoors, and not spread it to others, or to go and get medical assistance.

Surely the more people are able to identify as carriers quickly means less spread and that can only be a good thing. Well, it is a good thing, numbers are starting to fall over there now.

At the moment though people can only get a test here in UK if they have been to an infected area or have come into contact with somebody who has I thought. That's a big issue really as it doesn't do anything to stop the spread of the virus.

However I don't think there's much choice. We simply don't have the infrastructure and NHS personnel to open this up to anyone with flu like symptoms.

 

[Dave]

The benefit of more testing is clear to see when you look at S Korea. Anyone can get a test done, quickly, easily, stay isolated, get their results back within a few hours and know whether to stay indoors, and not spread it to others, or to go and get medical assistance.

Surely the more people are able to identify as carriers quickly means less spread and that can only be a good thing. Well, it is a good thing, numbers are starting to fall over there now.

The new testing regime in the uk won’t achieve that as the test still takes 24hrs to process. I would suggest the reduction in cases in SK is more related to extreme isolation even of the healthy. The issue with that is you can’t isolate everyone indefinitely and there is a risk that once you release the population again then the virus starts to spread. So they are gambling on a vaccine being available sooner rather than later (a gamble they may win, the fastest a vaccine has been developed is 7 months from viral sequencing to first human trial but I know researchers are aiming to be testing in April).

Testing does help calm the panic on the fatality rate if you know exactly how many people are infected though.

 

[GaryH]

The danger is this will end up like Italy. One minute you think you have 400 cases, next minute with more testing you realise its 3 times that and you are in trouble. I expect our actual position to be considerably higher than being reported, and the NHS may find itself swamped with severe patients they didnt even know about needing to be put in to ICU.

Edit : kinda related to testing but Blood Donations in the UK are not screened for the virus..... they "think" it cant be passed on through blood donations but this needs further investigation.

 

[pluk]

As I said slightly jokingly at the start of this thread, I really do think there's a chance I may have had it; I had the simptons as described in the order it's reported they usually come, my area was one of the first to have diagnosis with no known source, and I come into contact with a huge amount of people from all sorts of backgrounds. So who knows? I probably never will.

 

[Benjsh]

As I said slightly jokingly at the start of this thread, I really do think there's a chance I may have had it; I had the simptons as described in the order it's reported they usually come, my area was one of the first to have diagnosis with no known source, and I come into contact with a huge amount of people from all sorts of backgrounds. So who knows? I probably never will.

Unless you're of a certain age or in ill health you'll be fine anyway. However it's who you've been mixing with if you did get it.

I definitely think people should isolate themselves from elderly people for a while. Absolutely no need to take the risk. Other than that you have to go about your business as normal. We can't lock ourselves away for 4 months. The country / economy would collapse.

 

[Dave]

The danger is this will end up like Italy. One minute you think you have 400 cases, next minute with more testing you realise its 3 times that and you are in trouble. I expect our actual position to be considerably higher than being reported, and the NHS may find itself swamped with severe patients they didnt even know about needing to be put in to ICU.

The NHS is already assuming the actual infection rate is higher than reported. The testing is more important for the government to decide when to move to the delay phase. Suspect this will happen this weekend.

It’s a double edge sword, on one hand the NHS has been horribly under resources for 10 years, on the other hand we are very good at coordinated planning and have had a few weeks to watch how the virus has developed in other countries.

 

[GaryH]

As I said slightly jokingly at the start of this thread, I really do think there's a chance I may have had it; I had the simptons as described in the order it's reported they usually come, my area was one of the first to have diagnosis with no known source, and I come into contact with a huge amount of people from all sorts of backgrounds. So who knows? I probably never will.

My brother and wife also think they had it based on identical symptoms to the virus. Their 12 year old daughter also caught it, had a very mild fever and was better in a day or two. My brother and wife were ill for weeks. People calling BBC 5 Live this morning also reported similar symptoms in December/January so yeah I think its been in this country a lot longer.

Which is good - because it means people have got over it - however, just thinking, we get alerts in our hospital if mortality rates are higher than expected, and the past few months we have had them for pneumonia. Go figure......

 

[speedy]

We can't lock ourselves away for 4 months. The country / economy would collapse.

That's what Italy and China have done, to an extent. I'd rather have the economy take a hit than have thousands dead.

 

[Benjsh]

That's what Italy and China have done, to an extent. I'd rather have the economy take a hit than have thousands dead.

They haven't though. This is the thing. The talks of lockdowns have been somewhat exaggerated as they have said "unless you need to go to work". Most people still need to do that to eat and pay bills. Not everyone has worked from home. Lots of people are unable to.

 

[GaryH]

Wuhan was totally locked down, businesses closed, factories closed, no one went out without permission to go to the shops. Other regions of China followed suit and its only been the past few weeks businesses and factories are starting up again.

I would be happy to stay at home for a while to stop this spreading and to protect the vulnerable. I think we all have a duty to at least protect those who may be in danger from this, old and young.

 

[Benjsh]

Wuhan was totally locked down, businesses closed, factories closed, no one went out without permission to go to the shops. Other regions of China followed suit and its only been the past few weeks businesses and factories are starting up again.

I would be happy to stay at home for a while to stop this spreading and to protect the vulnerable. I think we all have a duty to at least protect those who may be in danger from this, old and young.

Wuhan is ground zero. Kind of goes without saying tbf.

The whole of the UK can't close down. It's just not feasible. We need emergency service people working, we still need food being delivered to stores everyday etc. I don't think people realise what closing down a country would do. It would be an utter disaster.

 

[Dave]

Wuhan was totally locked down, businesses closed, factories closed, no one went out without permission to go to the shops. Other regions of China followed suit and its only been the past few weeks businesses and factories are starting up again.

I would be happy to stay at home for a while to stop this spreading and to protect the vulnerable. I think we all have a duty to at least protect those who may be in danger from this, old and young.

What you going to eat if everyone who makes the food is locked at home?

 

[GaryH]

Well some of the supermarkets and takeaways stayed open. People ordered online, their goods were delivered in carrier bags to their apartment block and left outside the entrance with their address on it. In terms of shops, not sure if anyone saw it, but one shop built a slide to goods could slide down to the customer out of the shop window so people didnt need to go inside. Other shops delivered goods the same way as takeaways, although most people did their own food in their apartments from what I have read.

 

[Benjsh]

Well some of the supermarkets and takeaways stayed open. People ordered online, their goods were delivered in carrier bags to their apartment block and left outside the entrance with their address on it. In terms of shops, not sure if anyone saw it, but one shop built a slide to goods could slide down to the customer out of the shop window so people didnt need to go inside. Other shops delivered goods the same way as takeaways, although most people did their own food in their apartments from what I have read.

Kind of negates everything you've said though doesn't it. They were open. Where did they get the food to begin with in order to deliver the food?

The country simply can't shut down. It just can't. We'd be facing arguably worse issues if it did. Riots etc.

All they need to do is enforce older retired people to stay at home and for the rest of us to wash hands and take precautions etc. We can't do more than that sadly.

 

[jon81uk]

Wuhan was totally locked down, businesses closed, factories closed, no one went out without permission to go to the shops. Other regions of China followed suit and its only been the past few weeks businesses and factories are starting up again.

I would be happy to stay at home for a while to stop this spreading and to protect the vulnerable. I think we all have a duty to at least protect those who may be in danger from this, old and young.

China also has a very different government and regime. Citizens will do as they are told. Unless the UK does put the army on the streets a curfew would not happen.

 

[GaryH]

WHO just confirmed it as a Pandemic.

Anyway going back to the posts about the country being shut down. Any business that was open had to have permission. Only a small number of shops were open and they had set up precautions. Most people got their food by delivery. People in apartment blocks each had an ID card and were allowed to exit at certain times and only to get food.

I guess what im saying is that if you take your typical city with 40 Tesco stores, 100 costa coffees etc then only one or two of each would be open. Everyone else would be forced to stay in doors.

And yep, it would be very hard to enforce in the UK as quite frankly, some people's attitudes towards the elderly and those with conditions as I have read online is truly shocking.

 

[Benjsh]

WHO just confirmed it as a Pandemic.

Anyway going back to the posts about the country being shut down. Any business that was open had to have permission. Only a small number of shops were open and they had set up precautions. Most people got their food by delivery. People in apartment blocks each had an ID card and were allowed to exit at certain times and only to get food.

I guess what im saying is that if you take your typical city with 40 Tesco stores, 100 costa coffees etc then only one or two of each would be open. Everyone else would be forced to stay in doors.

And yep, it would be very hard to enforce in the UK as quite frankly, some people's attitudes towards the elderly and those with conditions as I have read online is truly shocking.

Yeah and you try and tell 95% of people to not work but you other 5% you have to just keep working to keep us all going with the basics. Yeah right.....