Coronavirus

[Rob]

I think ultimately there is a relatively significant proportion of the population who are happy to meet up with others indoors regardless of what tier they are in or whether or not we are in some form of national lockdown. Either because they simply do not believe in social distancing measures, or they have grown tired of them. It's not something I have seen from anyone that I know, but it is obvious that it happens.

 

[Matt N]

It has been confirmed that the Christmas guidance is “unlikely” to change in England, however in Wales, only 2 households can meet, and Mark Drakeford has also confirmed a fresh stay-at-home lockdown is coming into force from 28th December. Boris is doing a Downing Street press conference later on.

I must admit, I do have some concerns about this whole Christmas mixing thing. I can absolutely understand why the government has done it, and I’m sure that they have scientific evidence to justify it. I’m also sure that everyone will follow the rules to the best of their ability. However, I am concerned that it may lead to a third wave and third lockdown in January, which would be devastating for certain areas of the economy as well as the mental well-being of many people.

I completely understand that everyone has different circumstances and different preferences over what to do about Christmas (so what the government has done is probably the best compromise), and I do think it will be nice to have relatives round to our house on Christmas Day, but if I was able to pick, I would personally have chosen to have tighter restrictions over Christmas in order to allow us to get out of tight restrictions more quickly and prevent any further lockdowns later. I feel like I’m in a huge minority, but I never really understood the emphasis on Christmas, personally.

But the government knows far more than me, so I shouldn’t question them, I suppose!

What do you guys think?

 

[Jonathan]

I don't disagree with you at all, but I think we all know that some people will take liberties and not follow any of the rules at all. It is these people who will likely be held responsible for a rise in coronavirus cases in the first couple of weeks of 2021. My brother's coming to stay for the Christmas window, which I'd ordinarily be fine with, but given he lives in London, I'm unsure it's a wise idea. My parents are due to be picking him up next week, and also doing a present run to my older brother in Bognor Regis that same day, so at least public transport will be avoided for him, even though public transport itself is surprisingly safe. I don't think it's a good idea under the circumstances, especially given I work in a high-risk transmission environment, but I can't say anything to my parents because I just know they won't change their minds, and I'll likely be labelled selfish & uncaring as a result. Given my parents would've had me eat my meals on my own for two weeks when my brother had returned from Turkey in the summer (which I still think was ridiculously unfair, and I'm so grateful that it never ended up happening), I just can't be bothered trying to debate many COVID-related things with them any more. I simply haven't got the energy. Though having said that, we're all getting the vaccine as soon as we're eligible for it.

 

[Craig]

There's so much stupidity in the Christmas rules I don't even know where to start, but a few observations anyway:

• Tier 3 restrictions mean those that visit families in those areas can't stay in the hotels they usually do when they visit. So where are they going to stay? In the very homes they're trying to avoid people staying in overnight.
• Not everyone lives in a mansion. Allowing everyone to meet up in a home for Christmas dinner around a tiny table while not allowing restaurants to serve that same dinner in a Covid secure environment is utterly insane.
• You can't throw away social distancing guidelines for those household bubbles while at the same time advising they don't stay overnight in the home. It's either one or the other.
• There's way too many households included in the bubbles. Why not keep it limited for indoors in homes and encourage people to meet up for a walk outdoors or something instead? Still a risk, but at least it's a lower risk. We've had so much bleating on about rule of 6, even under lesser restrictions, yet people are going to be able to pile into a house in far greater numbers?!

It really does amaze me that the government are willing to throw away the work done so far for the sake of 5 days to prevent being seen to "cancel Christmas", when the likely result of that will result in a massive rise in cases later effectively completely wiping out the whole month of January.

And don't get me started that people of other religions had Eid and Diwali completely cancelled, while we're pulling out all the stops for Christmas. One far better suggestion I heard would've been to limit Christmas as possible, allow smaller families to meet up indoors, but to sweeten the deal allow a long one off 4 day bank holiday weekend next year in the Summer to allow people to get together.

 

[delta79]

Considering he works with what could be high risk people, i think it is fool hardy of him.
If it does get transmitted via this trip and he passes it on to his flock then it could be very embarrassing for the church.

Maybe he is being selfish and is not think of his congregation. Only of having his family together for Christmas.

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[Jonathan]

I don't think my parents give a damn about the rules on this occasion. So long as they're happy, [insert expletive here] to what I think and how it'll affect me. Even though I don't normally spend much time with them, when I do, they rarely ask my views on things, and when they do, it always feels as though they're doing it in a way to catch me out or contradict me for no real reason. That's just a general comment, by the way. There's literally nowhere for my brother to stay other than in our house, so if he brings COVID up with him, we're all screwed.

 

[Alsty]

As a side note, I wonder how many family arguments have been caused by the relaxation of the rules over Christmas?

Luckily my family this year are being sensible and we're not doing a big family get together; it'll just be me and my parents. However if my brother and his family had wanted to visit then it would've put a real strain on me or my parents to say "no I don't think you should", especially as that is perfectly within the law. Similarly if I pulled out because I didn't consider it sensible, it would come across as a snub and be likely to offend. I'm sure others are also having problems deciding which in-laws to go to etc...

 

[Matt.GC]

I'm the other way round to you, Matt - I live in Tier 2 but work in Tier 3. The difference is striking. People in the Tier 2 area where I live are better at following the rules than the Tier 3 area where I work.

My gym's in a Tier 3 area, and they've done a lot to try & ensure people remain safe, with a lot of extra cleaning stations put in. The one rule they have is you must wear a face covering unless you're exercising, and I can probably count on one hand the number of people who've obeyed this, excluding myself. Along with people gathering in the car park at work in the evenings (your typical car lovers who use the undercover bit of the car park to show off their engines) in gatherings of way more than six & not respecting social distancing, it's no wonder Staffordshire's in Tier 3 if this is replicated across the county, though I do accept this is more than likely just a microcosm.

Case in point regarding Staffs being in Tier 3: last Thursday, myself and my colleague had closed the petrol station down and were heading over the road to the main store before going home (there's usually a bit of cardboard & plastic to be put into the baler, plus waste milk from the coffee machine into the chiller to be removed & dealt with, and the keys are handed over). As is common, there were a number of cars in the undercover bit of the car park that I know didn't belong to colleagues - I'm unsure of the exact number, but it was almost certainly more than six. There were a lot of people, with no masks or social distancing. One of them, I later found out, has leukaemia, and I just had to facepalm at that. Why put yourself at even further risk? When we'd sorted out everything in store and had clocked out, we left the building, and the cars had left the undercover bit, but there were some blue flashing lights in the car park. We then realised it was a police car that had stopped a few vehicles which had been in the car park a few minutes previously. I'd hope some fines were doled out to people who were there.

As soon as you mentioned the baler, I deduced that we work for the same employer and my job has always given me a great insight into the behaviours of the general public as they live out their day to day lives. The behaviours from the GP I've seen from working throughout has changed significantly during the course of the year.

There was a massive difference between the full lockdown earlier in the year, the last Mickey Mouse one and the change of tiers. We entered into the so called "lockdown" in tier 2 and came out on tier 3 simply because of the greater Bristol area, even though we're outside of the county itself and outside of the city limits because of the amount of people in North Somerset and South Gloucestershire who work in the city.

After the appalling, frantic, "me me me" behaviour we saw during the frenzied panic buying before the first lock down, everything changed when we went in to lock down. Most people were perfectly reasonable, responsible and there was a genuine community spirit. The police were very good with PCSOs on patrol and helping out for the odd idiot. A number of colleagues were stopped and asked what they were doing out and had to show name badges. As there were very little reasons to be out, shopping became a bit of a social event, an excuse to be out and meet in the car parks but most people were reasonable. The rules were incredibly simple and easy to understand, don't go out unless you have to. Infection rates and death plummeted and businesses were allowed to reopen, most of them in full as a result.

Fast forward to now and our half assed attempt at this tier system and the lockdown that only seems to have succeeded in causing economic damage and everything seems to be back to normal apart from the devastating economic impact, which itself will cost lives. People are rocking on back out, huddling together, taking the whole extended family out shopping with them and generally doing whatever the hell they like.

I had to look up the rules in my area (didn't even know we were in that tier until I actually went looking for it). So I've basically adopted a common sense approach of staying away from as many people as possible and staying at home as much as possible. Imagine if I didn't bother looking into it, didn't care, lost my livelihood because of it or subscribed to one of these "it's not real" conspiracy theories.

The rules are so inconsistent. Can't sit in a beer garden staying away from people, but can send my kids to school with hundreds of other kids only for them all to get sent home again TWICE within days of going back. I get that people should be more individually responsible, but the fact of the matter is, they just aren't and the government has lost so much credibility with people like myself that even people who do treat it seriously don't have any respect for them.

Selfish people are ultimately to blame if we want to retain our civil liberties like in other countries but now economic desperation is causing non compliance. London, Bristol, Birmingham, Stoke, Manchester, Liverpool and many other places in tier 3 have awfully terrible levels of poverty (with the London, Bristol and Birmingham in particular having disgraceful wealth gaps where the super rich live next door to some of the worst deprivation in the country). The early lock down was simple, effective and easier to enforce than the nonsense we have now.

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[Jonathan]

Boris' announcement at the start of the first lockdown was pretty clear, and I hate giving him credit for anything because I thoroughly dislike him. It's so frustrating that the guidance has become more muddled & confusing as time's gone on, and I feel as though some of what's been done is to distract from the absolute excrement-storm he's responsible for. When we're still in a pandemic (and Tier 3), it's frustrating just how many people are using cash, despite being asked to pay by card as much as possible. I'm using so much sanitiser that I swear I could get drunk just by licking my hands. With this second 'lockdown' (because let's face it, it wasn't), I didn't see anywhere near as much painc-buying this time around, and I can deduce one of two things.
1) People had enough food at home from the first lockdown, and therefore, didn't need any more.
2) People had actually learned they didn't need to panic-buy.

What confused me during the second 'lockdown' was the need for places of worship to close. My church is less than three minutes' walk from my house. We've got all sorts of protocols in place to ensure safety - seats have to be booked in advance, face coverings are mandatory, hand sanitiser is available on entry, seats are spaced apart to allow for social distancing, you're supposed to stay in your seat until the service ends, the people nearest the doors exit first, the procedure for Holy Communion has changed (wafers as opposed to bread and disposable Communion wine glasses)...Genuinely, I feel pretty safe at church, and I'd be interested to see the percentage of COVID infections linked to places of worship. My guess is the figure will likely be rather low. Also, we're asked to avoid going to church for any reason from Thursday lunchtime onwards, as it gets a deep-clean in readiness for Sunday mornings, which is fine.

I've stayed at home as much as I possibly can this year. I only really go out to work, church, the gym, or occasional extra shopping trips, and that's it. I did go away for a weekend in August with some friends from here, and kept to the COVID rules for the entire time. Some people we saw didn't, but there's only so much that can be done to try and encourage people to follow the rules. And as said, some just won't follow any rules because they won't be told what to do and believe all the 5G microchip theories, or that wearing masks actually makes coronavirus worse, or some other complete & utter rubbish cooked up by idiots.

 

[Danza91]

The reality is it's a no win situation regarding Christmas. However, by now everyone should have evaluated their risks and acted accordingly. No one is forcing you to meet with elderly or vulnerable relatives, there is a large element of responsibility in all of this, stop relying on the Government to make decisions for you and weigh up risk vs benefit. I understand the argument that your decisions may impact others, however some people need that break for their own wellbeing.

My partner and I have weighed up the risk about Christmas. We'll be travelling 200miles up to her's this Christmas and spending it with her parents and sister who are in their own 'bubble'. We're not concerned about ourselves, only her parents, though they don't fall into the 'at risk' category. We're all in Tier 2, with our rates below the national average. We've both barely seen anyone other than my immediately family (who are local) since September, simply because it's pretty much impossible to do so anyway. She works for the NHS, is exhausted and misses her family. We live in a one bed flat and need some time away for the sake of our own mental health and to see some different faces. Sure, there's an element of risk involved, but that's true with anything in life.

When the tiers target the wrong sectors, like restaurants, cinemas, gyms, and the Government won't even allow the worst (or one of) affected sector (schools) to close a week early ahead of Christmas, I think we can all agree it's only going to go one way - tier 3 for all and/or into another lockdown. The constant u-turns, relaxing of restrictions and then upping them a week or two later, it's just draining and has played a big factor in why people are fatigued from it all.

 

[Burbs]

The constant u-turns, relaxing of restrictions and then upping them a week or two later, it's just draining and has played a big factor in why people are fatigued from it all.

This. I live in London during term time and think we should have been in tier 3 from the end of the last "lockdown," but we weren't. I really do feel for the pubs, restaurants and theatres (the industry I work and study in) amongst other hospitality venues somehow managing to open and spending plenty of money trying to get back up and running, before being told they had to close again. All this shafting from pillar to post is unfair.

 

[pluk]

I think ultimately there is a relatively significant proportion of the population who are happy to meet up with others indoors regardless of what tier they are in or whether or not we are in some form of national lockdown. Either because they simply do not believe in social distancing measures, or they have grown tired of them. It's not something I have seen from anyone that I know, but it is obvious that it happens.

It's something I have seen from many many many people.

Around my way, Basildon has the third higest infection rate in the whole country. The same Basildon that played host to an anti lockdown / anti vaccination/ anti intelligence demonstration a couple of weeks ago that resulted in a number of arrests. Funny that, it's almost like the attitude and actions of people has a direct impact on the results.

But of course, the infection rates are always someone else's fault.

 

[Matt N]

An interesting study conducted in the Netherlands is now saying that the hospitality industry actually has only a very limited effect on transmission of COVID: https://apple.news/AWN8QdiCSTi-297W7KMsxyA

The study found that prior to the Netherlands shutting bars & restaurants, COVID’s R number was at 1.08. Initially following closure, it fell to 0.82. However, a week or two later, with them still closed, the R number was right back up to 1.04.

The scientists who conducted the study hypothesise that closing hospitality settings does not bring down transmission that much in the long term because the types of gatherings that would typically happen in hospitality settings move into people’s homes instead, where social distancing is typically not observed as strictly.

Interesting stuff; what do you guys think of this?

 

[Craig]

An interesting study conducted in the Netherlands is now saying that the hospitality industry actually has only a very limited effect on transmission of COVID: https://apple.news/AWN8QdiCSTi-297W7KMsxyA

The study found that prior to the Netherlands shutting bars & restaurants, COVID’s R number was at 1.08. Initially following closure, it fell to 0.82. However, a week or two later, with them still closed, the R number was right back up to 1.04.

The scientists who conducted the study hypothesise that closing hospitality settings does not bring down transmission that much in the long term because the types of gatherings that would typically happen in hospitality settings move into people’s homes instead, where social distancing is typically not observed as strictly.

Interesting stuff; what do you guys think of this?

Sadly it's something that's been blatantly obvious for some time in the UK, and the main reason for my frustration at these crazy rules for indoor socialising when at the same time you can't just grab a pre Christmas drink with friends in a secure setting - even outside! The decision to close hospitality was a crazy one in all honesty. Bars you can understand to an extent due to chucking out time, but then you mitigate that by either limiting the number drinks or doing as they have done and only allowing drinks with food.

In all the places I went whilst we still could up here, bars and restaurants were by far the places where I felt measures were best implemented.

 

[Matt.GC]

In all the places I went whilst we still could up here, bars and restaurants were by far the places where I felt measures were best implemented.

Same experience I've had. I'd also say the same for high street retailers. Yet both sectors are paying a heavy price no matter what they do.

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[RoyJess]

No one is forcing you to meet with elderly or vulnerable relatives, there is a large element of responsibility in all of this, stop relying on the Government to make decisions for you and weigh up risk vs benefit. I understand the argument that your decisions may impact others, however some people need that break for their own wellbeing.

This

I don't disagree with you at all, but I think we all know that some people will take liberties and not follow any of the rules at all. It is these people who will likely be held responsible for a rise in coronavirus cases in the first couple of weeks of 2021. My brother's coming to stay for the Christmas window, which I'd ordinarily be fine with, but given he lives in London, I'm unsure it's a wise idea. My parents are due to be picking him up next week, and also doing a present run to my older brother in Bognor Regis that same day, so at least public transport will be avoided for him, even though public transport itself is surprisingly safe. I don't think it's a good idea under the circumstances, especially given I work in a high-risk transmission environment, but I can't say anything to my parents because I just know they won't change their minds, and I'll likely be labelled selfish & uncaring as a result. Given my parents would've had me eat my meals on my own for two weeks when my brother had returned from Turkey in the summer (which I still think was ridiculously unfair, and I'm so grateful that it never ended up happening), I just can't be bothered trying to debate many COVID-related things with them any more. I simply haven't got the energy. Though having said that, we're all getting the vaccine as soon as we're eligible for it.

It's alright saying that people can make their own decisions with regards what they feel is safe or not, but what about the vulnerable that are too weak to say no. They won't get a choice or say as their wishes, concerns, fears will be undermined. I know this from our own experience over the years with Jess that people will often put their own needs before Jess' best interest.

Covid rates are up, hospital admissions are up, patients taken to hospital are having to wait outside in the ambulance for hours waiting to be admitted. The real people that this will be affecting is the hospital staff that have to pick up the pieces. You only have to take a look at America how "Thanks Giving" has caused a very big overwhelming spike in covid cases. A spike in cases will hinder the roll out of the vaccine, if the staff are infected, they can't administer the vaccine and if you have covid, then you are not allowed to have the vaccine until you are covid free.

Jess and I are lucky that it's just us living where we are. My daughter had left home early this year so that we can shield Jess. So we can carry on shielding during the Christmas Holidays. It's been a tough year, but at least Jess and I have each other.

 

[Dave]

The reality is it's a no win situation regarding Christmas. However, by now everyone should have evaluated their risks and acted accordingly. No one is forcing you to meet with elderly or vulnerable relatives, there is a large element of responsibility in all of this, stop relying on the Government to make decisions for you and weigh up risk vs benefit. I understand the argument that your decisions may impact others, however some people need that break for their own wellbeing.

My partner and I have weighed up the risk about Christmas. We'll be travelling 200miles up to her's this Christmas and spending it with her parents and sister who are in their own 'bubble'. We're not concerned about ourselves, only her parents, though they don't fall into the 'at risk' category. We're all in Tier 2, with our rates below the national average. We've both barely seen anyone other than my immediately family (who are local) since September, simply because it's pretty much impossible to do so anyway. She works for the NHS, is exhausted and misses her family. We live in a one bed flat and need some time away for the sake of our own mental health and to see some different faces. Sure, there's an element of risk involved, but that's true with anything in life.

When the tiers target the wrong sectors, like restaurants, cinemas, gyms, and the Government won't even allow the worst (or one of) affected sector (schools) to close a week early ahead of Christmas, I think we can all agree it's only going to go one way - tier 3 for all and/or into another lockdown. The constant u-turns, relaxing of restrictions and then upping them a week or two later, it's just draining and has played a big factor in why people are fatigued from it all.

Unfortunately brits are not particularly renowned for acting in their own best interests. That said I agree people need to take some personal responsibility and I don’t envy the government the Xmas decision. Their idiotic relaxing of the south east restrictions in December however was a moronic decision that with Xmas added will make January a real struggle.

But I long ago stopped hoping Johnson would develop competence.

 

[RoyJess]

An online calculator has been published to estimate when you might get the vaccine

https://www.omnicalculator.com/health/vaccine-queue-uk#atrisk

Looks like I might get mine in June, I'm not too sure when Jess will get hers, depends if she comes under one of the umbrella medical terms. Could be anything between July and the end of September, or as early as March April depending if she qualifies under their list of underlying health conditions.

 

[Thameslink Rail]

I got June to September, in practice I'm bottom of the list so I would be surprised if they get round to me!

 

[Craig]

There's far too many variables at the moment to be able to even remotely give an approximate date for vaccination, and it's a little careless of the press to be publicising this site at the moment.

We need the authorisation of the Oxford vaccine on stream amongst the others, not to mention more rollout locations established before we can even get round to giving people any idea on when they'll be getting their vaccine.